Memo
To: Democrats
From: But What If I’m Write?
Subject: The impeachment rabbit hole Trump, McConnell, and other actors want you to enter.
If there is any one takeaway from Wednesday's hearings in the House Judiciary and Intelligence Committees where Robert Mueller III, former special counsel for the Russian 2016 election interference investigation spent seven hours being praised and beaten by Democrats and Republicans, respectively, it’s that Democrats appear desperate to impeach Donald Trump.
And that would be an incredibly costly mistake. A mistake Trump and his Republican allies at home and abroad are hoping Democrats will make. My message to Democrats, and particularly to Nancy Pelosi who has been trying to hold her colleagues back, is do the campaign time and resources math before you leap down that rabbit hole.
An impeachment process, no matter how well supported by the facts and reasonable, common-sense assumptions detailed in the Mueller Report (which I’ve read in full), will suck all the money, energy, and good will away from the Democrats’ 2020 election months. Before you reply that “it’s the principle of the thing,” let me assure that the exercise of your principle, in this particular case, will, most assuredly, cost you House and Senate seats to the point of a possible loss of the House and a shrinking minority in the Senate. And the Republicans are counting on that fact. In fact, behind closed doors they are betting that your impatience and anger—justifiable in my opinion—will blind you to the signs of the trap they are digging.
Trump, Senate Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), and the House and Senate campaign committees, all their associated PACS, and certain foreign bad actors know two key things: 1. A House impeachment process will eat up the Democrats campaign time, creating nationwide media (social and news) and get-out-the-vote vacuums in every Democrat-held district; and, 2. The Republican financial war chest, already massive, will be targeted with a vengeance at vulnerable or swing districts where Democrats, who would otherwise be there to fight for their seats, will, instead, be trapped in Washington for a protracted impeachment process. Removed from the fight by their own hands, Democrats will not be financially or strategically flexible enough to fight the local fires the Republicans will be sure to set.
An impeachment process, no matter how well supported by the facts and reasonable, common-sense assumptions detailed in the Mueller Report (which I’ve read in full), will suck all the money, energy, and good will away from the Democrats’ 2020 election months. Before you reply that “it’s the principle of the thing,” let me assure that the exercise of your principle, in this particular case, will, most assuredly, cost you House and Senate seats to the point of a possible loss of the House and a shrinking minority in the Senate. And the Republicans are counting on that fact. In fact, behind closed doors they are betting that your impatience and anger—justifiable in my opinion—will blind you to the signs of the trap they are digging.
Trump, Senate Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), and the House and Senate campaign committees, all their associated PACS, and certain foreign bad actors know two key things: 1. A House impeachment process will eat up the Democrats campaign time, creating nationwide media (social and news) and get-out-the-vote vacuums in every Democrat-held district; and, 2. The Republican financial war chest, already massive, will be targeted with a vengeance at vulnerable or swing districts where Democrats, who would otherwise be there to fight for their seats, will, instead, be trapped in Washington for a protracted impeachment process. Removed from the fight by their own hands, Democrats will not be financially or strategically flexible enough to fight the local fires the Republicans will be sure to set.
I hardly need to tell you that Republican- and foreign-funded social media political tricksters will spin you around like an F-5 tornado. Let me put it simply: Trump and McConnell know that if you don’t show up to raise money and campaign 24/7 in the spring and summer of 2020, you will lose in the fall. If you are sitting in Washington debating impeachment, you cannot be back home to raise money, work the media, defend against personal attacks, pound the streets, and win.
The House Republicans don’t have to show up at impeachment hearings; they don’t have to engage in House floor debate. They know perfectly well the numbers are against them in that chamber. But bear this in mind: Trump plays the chaos game, and he will take a short-term loss (a House impeachment vote) for a big-time gain (keeping the White House, winning back the House and holding the Senate). He is aided and abetted in this strategy by McConnell who cares only for his Republican majority and will suck up to Trump’s game of divide-and-conquer every single time. And we know from the Mueller Report that Mr. Trump is not reluctant to take on help from abroad if it means any kind of victory.
If you do nothing else, Democrats, look at the calendar: It’s now late July, almost August. That means there is one long recess coming up and you won’t be back in Washington until September. Once you’re back, it will take a month, maybe six weeks, to organize an impeachment inquiry, which will eat up another month—taking you to November, if you’re lucky and fast. And remember, this won't be a quick one-and-done as it was with Bill Clinton's impeachment in the House; in 1998, the House had the advantage of Ken Starr's full investigation so formal investigatory hearings were dispensed with--even so, the House process ran from early November until mid-December. The Mueller Report will only serve as a starting point for any Trump impeachment; the House will have to work up its own investigation. That takes time.
If you do nothing else, Democrats, look at the calendar: It’s now late July, almost August. That means there is one long recess coming up and you won’t be back in Washington until September. Once you’re back, it will take a month, maybe six weeks, to organize an impeachment inquiry, which will eat up another month—taking you to November, if you’re lucky and fast. And remember, this won't be a quick one-and-done as it was with Bill Clinton's impeachment in the House; in 1998, the House had the advantage of Ken Starr's full investigation so formal investigatory hearings were dispensed with--even so, the House process ran from early November until mid-December. The Mueller Report will only serve as a starting point for any Trump impeachment; the House will have to work up its own investigation. That takes time.
Once any hearings are over, the Floor debates will begin, and there is no way your members will work though Thanksgiving, much less Christmas, which is about how long any serious debate schedule would take. Again, you have to remember that the Clinton impeachment proceedings began during a lame-duck session, not at the beginning of an election period.
With 2020 coming up, Democrats will be itching to get out the door and back home to their districts which will, by that time, be under heavy fire from Republican challengers loaded with tons of money. Remember, while you, the Democrats, are eating up time on an impeachment inquiry, and floor action, the Republicans will be out in force all across the country, taking shots at you from every angle.
My hope is that the House Democrats will not start impeachment proceedings in 2019, if they look at the calculus that is so clearly in the Republicans’ favor. But Trump is hoping you don’t do the math. He wants you start this fall and burn as much time and energy as you will most certainly expend.
So, let’s say the voices of the Democrats rise to such a volume that Speaker Pelosi caves and begins proceedings after the winter recess—sometime in early 2020. Are you kidding? You might as well hand your seats over to the competition right now. An impeachment process starting in January or February of 2020 would be political suicide for all but the safest Democrats (and there won’t be many of them if impeachment starts).
So, let’s say the voices of the Democrats rise to such a volume that Speaker Pelosi caves and begins proceedings after the winter recess—sometime in early 2020. Are you kidding? You might as well hand your seats over to the competition right now. An impeachment process starting in January or February of 2020 would be political suicide for all but the safest Democrats (and there won’t be many of them if impeachment starts).
The Republicans will suck all the air, money, and media out of your campaigns if you move forward with impeachment next year. Just think of the damage your headlong rush to “justice” will do to the presidential primaries and Congressional and Senatorial campaigns that are already toss ups. In addition, your constituents may be experiencing impeachment burn-out, and they will take that out on you by not fully engaging with your campaigns; don't take it personally, but don't assume your outrage will translate into votes. If you are perceived as trying to sell a one-note impeachment song around the clock, your constituents will just turn down your volume or, worse, change channels.
The Republicans will eat your lunch every single day, and Mitch McConnell will remind his members that their majority in the Senate will save the president. This is Trump’s (and, perhaps, the Russians’) master plan for 2020—foment division among Democrats and their constitutents, leverage cyber technology, and limit the Democrats’ campaign visibility and fund-raising abilities. In the process, Trump’s base will hold, or grow, and the Electoral College margins will begin to shift toward an assured Republican outcome.
Don’t doubt this outcome for a second, my Democrat friends. It’s not that Trump himself is capable of thinking up this strategy; it’s that those around him, including McConnell, are capable of maneuvering Trump to such a strategy and then letting him run with it. Lurking in the background, or posing as legitimate players, the Russians and other foreign actors who, despite Mr. Mueller’s warnings, will be finding local, state, and national niches to work in. Democrats, you cannot afford to piss away any energy, treasure, or vigilance in 2020—if you don’t stay close to home, you risk more than the loss of your individual seats; you will be risking our nation’s democratic identity.
So what’s the alternative? To begin with, put impeachment aside; lock it up and don’t open the door no matter how hard or plaintively it begs and screams. Focus all your energies, funds, and personal appearances on holding or expanding your seats, and in making sure you have the strongest get-out-the-vote presence possible in your districts and states.
Don’t doubt this outcome for a second, my Democrat friends. It’s not that Trump himself is capable of thinking up this strategy; it’s that those around him, including McConnell, are capable of maneuvering Trump to such a strategy and then letting him run with it. Lurking in the background, or posing as legitimate players, the Russians and other foreign actors who, despite Mr. Mueller’s warnings, will be finding local, state, and national niches to work in. Democrats, you cannot afford to piss away any energy, treasure, or vigilance in 2020—if you don’t stay close to home, you risk more than the loss of your individual seats; you will be risking our nation’s democratic identity.
So what’s the alternative? To begin with, put impeachment aside; lock it up and don’t open the door no matter how hard or plaintively it begs and screams. Focus all your energies, funds, and personal appearances on holding or expanding your seats, and in making sure you have the strongest get-out-the-vote presence possible in your districts and states.
There are three possible successful outcomes: 1. You hold the House, retake the Senate, and defeat Trump; 2. You hold the House and win the Senate but Trump wins; 3, You hold the House, fail to take the Senate, but Trump loses.
Personally, I put my bet on 3.
Oh, sure, it would be great to achieve 1: The Ds take over the Hill and a D retakes the White House AND, Trump is left to the U.S. justice system which will, after noon on January 20, 2021, swoop down on him faster than a Peregrine falcon drops on a rabbit. But the numbers are just not there, yet, to support serious thoughts about a Democratic Senate majority in 2020.
If you’re able to pull off option 2 (and your Senate majority is bullet-proof), then impeachment is suddenly quite real, and Trump will have a rough and, ultimately dead end road ahead of him.
Behind Door #3 is a kind of principle-plus-justice outcome that may taste a little bitter, but is, in the end, the right thing to do. It is up to America’s voters and the justice system to put an end to this foul, greed-driven Trumpian dictatorship. I know how much Democratic members of the House want to be in on some grand act bring Trump to his knees in the dirt of the political corrida. But sometimes you have to step out of the spotlight and let the voters and the justice system take the stage. Just because you want to do a thing, doesn’t mean you have to do at thing. You may not get the credit for the win, but you can contribute to the victory. Maybe you don’t get the Senate this time, but the voters will uphold fundamental principles of democracy and the justice system will mete out the proper punishment.
If this is where your principles lie, Democrats, then don’t proceed with impeachment in 2019 or 2020. Get out to your districts and states, work your asses off to hold the House and defeat Trump at the ballot box. That is what Trump does not want you to do…so go ahead and do just that thing.
Personally, I put my bet on 3.
Oh, sure, it would be great to achieve 1: The Ds take over the Hill and a D retakes the White House AND, Trump is left to the U.S. justice system which will, after noon on January 20, 2021, swoop down on him faster than a Peregrine falcon drops on a rabbit. But the numbers are just not there, yet, to support serious thoughts about a Democratic Senate majority in 2020.
If you’re able to pull off option 2 (and your Senate majority is bullet-proof), then impeachment is suddenly quite real, and Trump will have a rough and, ultimately dead end road ahead of him.
Behind Door #3 is a kind of principle-plus-justice outcome that may taste a little bitter, but is, in the end, the right thing to do. It is up to America’s voters and the justice system to put an end to this foul, greed-driven Trumpian dictatorship. I know how much Democratic members of the House want to be in on some grand act bring Trump to his knees in the dirt of the political corrida. But sometimes you have to step out of the spotlight and let the voters and the justice system take the stage. Just because you want to do a thing, doesn’t mean you have to do at thing. You may not get the credit for the win, but you can contribute to the victory. Maybe you don’t get the Senate this time, but the voters will uphold fundamental principles of democracy and the justice system will mete out the proper punishment.
If this is where your principles lie, Democrats, then don’t proceed with impeachment in 2019 or 2020. Get out to your districts and states, work your asses off to hold the House and defeat Trump at the ballot box. That is what Trump does not want you to do…so go ahead and do just that thing.
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