Tuesday, January 30, 2018

Lincoln's Worst Fears Realized in the 21st Century?


Abraham Lincoln was 28 when he gave the following speech at the Young Men’s Lyceum of Springfield, Illinois. His words presaged by 180 years the political and social conditions that threaten our 21st century democracy. I urge my readers to learn more about the causes and underlying conditions that prompted the young Lincoln’s remarks, but let it be said here that his vision for the peril our republic faced in 1838 is startling real today, and that an unharnessed leader who believes himself a genius is working daily to knock down every pillar of conscience and law upon which our country was founded. I have not changed any of Lincoln’s words, though I have italicized a few, and highlighted, in either red—key phrase of danger—or blue—key phrase of consideration—some of his text out of my own interest.

At what point then is the approach of danger to be expected? I answer. If it ever reach us it must spring up amongst us; it cannot come from abroad.

The Perpetuation of Our Political Institutions:
Address Before the Young Men's Lyceum of Springfield, Illinois
January 27, 1838
As a subject for the remarks of the evening, the perpetuation of our political institutions, is selected.
In the great journal of things happening under the sun, we, the American People, find our account running, under date of the nineteenth century of the Christian era. We find ourselves in the peaceful possession, of the fairest portion of the earth, as regards extent of territory, fertility of soil, and salubrity of climate. We find ourselves under the government of a system of political institutions, conducing more essentially to the ends of civil and religious liberty, than any of which the history of former times tells us. We, when mounting the stage of existence, found ourselves the legal inheritors of these fundamental blessings. We toiled not in the acquirement or establishment of them--they are a legacy bequeathed us, by a once hardy, brave, and patriotic, but now lamented and departed race of ancestors. Their's was the task (and nobly they performed it) to possess themselves, and through themselves, us, of this goodly land; and to uprear upon its hills and its valleys, a political edifice of liberty and equal rights; 'tis ours only, to transmit these, the former, unprofaned by the foot of an invader; the latter, undecayed by the lapse of time and untorn by usurpation, to the latest generation that fate shall permit the world to know. This task of gratitude to our fathers, justice to ourselves, duty to posterity, and love for our species in general, all imperatively require us faithfully to perform.
How then shall we perform it?--At what point shall we expect the approach of danger? By what means shall we fortify against it?-- Shall we expect some transatlantic military giant, to step the Ocean, and crush us at a blow? Never!--All the armies of Europe, Asia and Africa combined, with all the treasure of the earth (our own excepted) in their military chest; with a Buonaparte for a commander, could not by force, take a drink from the Ohio, or make a track on the Blue Ridge, in a trial of a thousand years.
At what point then is the approach of danger to be expected? I answer, if it ever reach us, it must spring up amongst us. It cannot come from abroad. If destruction be our lot, we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of freemen, we must live through all time, or die by suicide.
I hope I am over wary; but if I am not, there is, even now, something of ill-omen, amongst us. I mean the increasing disregard for law which pervades the country; the growing disposition to substitute the wild and furious passions, in lieu of the sober judgment of Courts; and the worse than savage mobs, for the executive ministers of justice. This disposition is awfully fearful in any community; and that it now exists in ours, though grating to our feelings to admit, it would be a violation of truth, and an insult to our intelligence, to deny. Accounts of outrages committed by mobs, form the every-day news of the times. They have pervaded the country, from New England to Louisiana;--they are neither peculiar to the eternal snows of the former, nor the burning suns of the latter;--they are not the creature of climate-- neither are they confined to the slave-holding, or the non-slave- holding States. Alike, they spring up among the pleasure hunting masters of Southern slaves, and the order loving citizens of the land of steady habits.--Whatever, then, their cause may be, it is common to the whole country.
It would be tedious, as well as useless, to recount the horrors of all of them. Those happening in the State of Mississippi, and at St. Louis, are, perhaps, the most dangerous in example and revolting to humanity. In the Mississippi case, they first commenced by hanging the regular gamblers; a set of men, certainly not following for a livelihood, a very useful, or very honest occupation; but one which, so far from being forbidden by the laws, was actually licensed by an act of the Legislature, passed but a single year before. Next, negroes, suspected of conspiring to raise an insurrection, were caught up and hanged in all parts of the State: then, white men, supposed to be leagued with the negroes; and finally, strangers, from neighboring States, going thither on business, were, in many instances subjected to the same fate. Thus went on this process of hanging, from gamblers to negroes, from negroes to white citizens, and from these to strangers; till, dead men were seen literally dangling from the boughs of trees upon every road side; and in numbers almost sufficient, to rival the native Spanish moss of the country, as a drapery of the forest.
Turn, then, to that horror-striking scene at St. Louis. A single victim was only sacrificed there. His story is very short; and is, perhaps, the most highly tragic, if anything of its length, that has ever been witnessed in real life. A mulatto man, by the name of McIntosh, was seized in the street, dragged to the suburbs of the city, chained to a tree, and actually burned to death; and all within a single hour from the time he had been a freeman, attending to his own business, and at peace with the world.
Such are the effects of mob law; and such as the scenes, becoming more and more frequent in this land so lately famed for love of law and order; and the stories of which, have even now grown too familiar, to attract any thing more, than an idle remark.
But you are, perhaps, ready to ask, "What has this to do with the perpetuation of our political institutions?" I answer, it has much to do with it. Its direct consequences are, comparatively speaking, but a small evil; and much of its danger consists, in the proneness of our minds, to regard its direct, as its only consequences. Abstractly considered, the hanging of the gamblers at Vicksburg, was of but little consequence. They constitute a portion of population, that is worse than useless in any community; and their death, if no pernicious example be set by it, is never matter of reasonable regret with any one. If they were annually swept, from the stage of existence, by the plague or small pox, honest men would, perhaps, be much profited, by the operation.--Similar too, is the correct reasoning, in regard to the burning of the negro at St. Louis. He had forfeited his life, by the perpetration of an outrageous murder, upon one of the most worthy and respectable citizens of the city; and had not he died as he did, he must have died by the sentence of the law, in a very short time afterwards. As to him alone, it was as well the way it was, as it could otherwise have been.--But the example in either case, was fearful.--When men take it in their heads to day, to hang gamblers, or burn murderers, they should recollect, that, in the confusion usually attending such transactions, they will be as likely to hang or burn some one who is neither a gambler nor a murderer as one who is; and that, acting upon the example they set, the mob of to-morrow, may, and probably will, hang or burn some of them by the very same mistake. And not only so; the innocent, those who have ever set their faces against violations of law in every shape, alike with the guilty, fall victims to the ravages of mob law; and thus it goes on, step by step, till all the walls erected for the defense of the persons and property of individuals, are trodden down, and disregarded. But all this even, is not the full extent of the evil.—
By such examples, by instances of the perpetrators of such acts going unpunished, the lawless in spirit, are encouraged to become lawless in practice; and having been used to no restraint, but dread of punishment, they thus become, absolutely unrestrained.--Having ever regarded Government as their deadliest bane, they make a jubilee of the suspension of its operations; and pray for nothing so much, as its total annihilation.
While, on the other hand, good men, men who love tranquility, who desire to abide by the laws, and enjoy their benefits, who would gladly spill their blood in the defense of their country; seeing their property destroyed; their families insulted, and their lives endangered; their persons injured; and seeing nothing in prospect that forebodes a change for the better; become tired of, and disgusted with, a Government that offers them no protection; and are not much averse to a change in which they imagine they have nothing to lose. Thus, then, by the operation of this mobocractic spirit, which all must admit, is now abroad in the land, the strongest bulwark of any Government, and particularly of those constituted like ours, may effectually be broken down and destroyed--I mean the attachment of the People.
Whenever this effect shall be produced among us; whenever the vicious portion of population shall be permitted to gather in bands of hundreds and thousands, and burn churches, ravage and rob provision-stores, throw printing presses into rivers, shoot editors, and hang and burn obnoxious persons at pleasure, and with impunity; depend on it, this Government cannot last.
By such things, the feelings of the best citizens will become more or less alienated from it; and thus it will be left without friends, or with too few, and those few too weak, to make their friendship effectual. At such a time and under such circumstances, men of sufficient talent and ambition will not be wanting to seize the opportunity, strike the blow, and overturn that fair fabric, which for the last half century, has been the fondest hope, of the lovers of freedom, throughout the world.
I know the American People are much attached to their Government; I know they would suffer much for its sake;--I know they would endure evils long and patiently, before they would ever think of exchanging it for another. Yet, notwithstanding all this, if the laws be continually despised and disregarded, if their rights to be secure in their persons and property, are held by no better tenure than the caprice of a mob, the alienation of their affections from the Government is the natural consequence; and to that, sooner or later, it must come.
Here then, is one point at which danger may be expected.
The question recurs, "how shall we fortify against it?" The answer is simple. Let every American, every lover of liberty, every well wisher to his posterity, swear by the blood of the Revolution, never to violate in the least particular, the laws of the country; and never to tolerate their violation by others. As the patriots of seventy-six did to the support of the Declaration of Independence, so to the support of the Constitution and Laws,
let every American pledge his life, his property, and his sacred honor;--let every man remember that to violate the law, is to trample on the blood of his father, and to tear the character of his own, and his children's liberty. Let reverence for the laws, be breathed by every American mother, to the lisping babe, that prattles on her lap--let it be taught in schools, in seminaries, and in colleges; let it be written in Primers, spelling books, and in Almanacs;--let it be preached from the pulpit, proclaimed in legislative halls, and enforced in courts of justice. And, in short, let it become the political religion of the nation; and let the old and the young, the rich and the poor, the grave and the gay, of all sexes and tongues, and colors and conditions, sacrifice unceasingly upon its altars.
While ever a state of feeling, such as this, shall universally, or even, very generally prevail throughout the nation, vain will be every effort, and fruitless every attempt, to subvert our national freedom.
When I so pressingly urge a strict observance of all the laws, let me not be understood as saying there are no bad laws, nor that grievances may not arise, for the redress of which, no legal provisions have been made.--I mean to say no such thing. But I do mean to say, that, although bad laws, if they exist, should be repealed as soon as possible, still while they continue in force, for the sake of example, they should be religiously observed. So also in unprovided cases. If such arise, let proper legal provisions be made for them with the least possible delay; but, till then, let them, if not too intolerable, be borne with.
There is no grievance that is a fit object of redress by mob law. In any case that arises, as for instance, the promulgation of abolitionism, one of two positions is necessarily true; that is, the thing is right within itself, and therefore deserves the protection of all law and all good citizens; or, it is wrong, and therefore proper to be prohibited by legal enactments; and in neither case, is the interposition of mob law, either necessary, justifiable, or excusable.
But, it may be asked, why suppose danger to our political institutions? Have we not preserved them for more than fifty years? And why may we not for fifty times as long?
We hope there is no sufficient reason. We hope all dangers may be overcome; but to conclude that no danger may ever arise, would itself be extremely dangerous. There are now, and will hereafter be, many causes, dangerous in their tendency, which have not existed heretofore; and which are not too insignificant to merit attention. That our government should have been maintained in its original form from its establishment until now, is not much to be wondered at. It had many props to support it through that period, which now are decayed, and crumbled away. Through that period, it was felt by all, to be an undecided experiment; now, it is understood to be a successful one.--Then, all that sought celebrity and fame, and distinction, expected to find them in the success of that experiment. Their all was staked upon it:-- their destiny was inseparably linked with it. Their ambition aspired to display before an admiring world, a practical demonstration of the truth of a proposition, which had hitherto been considered, at best no better, than problematical; namely, the capability of a people to govern themselves. If they succeeded, they were to be immortalized; their names were to be transferred to counties and cities, and rivers and mountains; and to be revered and sung, and toasted through all time. If they failed, they were to be called knaves and fools, and fanatics for a fleeting hour; then to sink and be forgotten. They succeeded. The experiment is successful; and thousands have won their deathless names in making it so. But the game is caught; and I believe it is true, that with the catching, end the pleasures of the chase. This field of glory is harvested, and the crop is already appropriated.
But new reapers will arise, and they, too, will seek a field. It is to deny, what the history of the world tells us is true, to suppose that men of ambition and talents will not continue to spring up amongst us. And, when they do, they will as naturally seek the gratification of their ruling passion, as others have so done before them. The question then, is, can that gratification be found in supporting and maintaining an edifice that has been erected by others? Most certainly it cannot. Many great and good men sufficiently qualified for any task they should undertake, may ever be found, whose ambition would inspire to nothing beyond a seat in Congress, a gubernatorial or a presidential chair; but such belong not to the family of the lion, or the tribe of the eagle. What! think you these places would satisfy an Alexander, a Caesar, or a Napoleon?--Never! Towering genius distains a beaten path. It seeks regions hitherto unexplored.--It sees no distinction in adding story to story, upon the monuments of fame, erected to the memory of others. It denies that it is glory enough to serve under any chief. It scorns to tread in the footsteps of any predecessor, however illustrious. It thirsts and burns for distinction; and, if possible, it will have it, whether at the expense of emancipating slaves, or enslaving freemen.
Is it unreasonable then to expect, that some man possessed of the loftiest genius, coupled with ambition sufficient to push it to its utmost stretch, will at some time, spring up among us? And when such a one does, it will require the people to be united with each other, attached to the government and laws, and generally intelligent, to successfully frustrate his designs.
Distinction will be his paramount object, and although he would as willingly, perhaps more so, acquire it by doing good as harm; yet, that opportunity being past, and nothing left to be done in the way of building up, he would set boldly to the task of pulling down.
Here, then, is a probable case, highly dangerous, and such a one as could not have well existed heretofore.
Another reason which once was; but which, to the same extent, is now no more, has done much in maintaining our institutions thus far. I mean the powerful influence which the interesting scenes of the revolution had upon the passions of the people as distinguished from their judgment. By this influence, the jealousy, envy, and avarice, incident to our nature, and so common to a state of peace, prosperity, and conscious strength, were, for the time, in a great measure smothered and rendered inactive; while the deep-rooted principles of hate, and the powerful motive of revenge, instead of being turned against each other, were directed exclusively against the British nation. And thus, from the force of circumstances, the basest principles of our nature, were either made to lie dormant, or to become the active agents in the advancement of the noblest cause--that of establishing and maintaining civil and religious liberty.
But this state of feeling must fade, is fading, has faded, with the circumstances that produced it.
I do not mean to say, that the scenes of the revolution are now or ever will be entirely forgotten; but that like every thing else, they must fade upon the memory of the world, and grow more and more dim by the lapse of time. In history, we hope, they will be read of, and recounted, so long as the bible shall be read;-- but even granting that they will, their influence cannot be what it heretofore has been. Even then, they cannot be so universally known, nor so vividly felt, as they were by the generation just gone to rest. At the close of that struggle, nearly every adult male had been a participator in some of its scenes. The consequence was, that of those scenes, in the form of a husband, a father, a son or brother, a living history was to be found in every family-- a history bearing the indubitable testimonies of its own authenticity, in the limbs mangled, in the scars of wounds received, in the midst of the very scenes related--a history, too, that could be read and understood alike by all, the wise and the ignorant, the learned and the unlearned.--But those histories are gone. They can be read no more forever. They were a fortress of strength; but, what invading foeman could never do, the silent artillery of time has done; the leveling of its walls. They are gone.--They were a forest of giant oaks; but the all-resistless hurricane has swept over them, and left only, here and there, a lonely trunk, despoiled of its verdure, shorn of its foliage; unshading and unshaded, to murmur in a few gentle breezes, and to combat with its mutilated limbs, a few more ruder storms, then to sink, and be no more.
They were the pillars of the temple of liberty; and now, that they have crumbled away, that temple must fall, unless we, their descendants, supply their places with other pillars, hewn from the solid quarry of sober reason. Passion has helped us; but can do so no more. It will in future be our enemy. Reason, cold, calculating, unimpassioned reason, must furnish all the materials for our future support and defence.--Let those materials be moulded into general intelligence, sound morality, and in particular, a reverence for the constitution and laws: and, that we improved to the last; that we remained free to the last; that we revered his name to the last; that, during his long sleep, we permitted no hostile foot to pass over or desecrate his resting place; shall be that which to learn the last trump shall awaken our WASHINGTON.

Upon these let the proud fabric of freedom rest, as the rock of its basis; and as truly as has been said of the only greater institution, "the gates of hell shall not prevail against it.

Monday, January 8, 2018

The Woman in the Arena


I read Oprah Winfrey’s Golden Globes acceptance speech, and there is little doubt Ms. Winfrey has a close and masterful relationship with the English language. No surprise there. For decades, millions of Americans have looked to Oprah as an inspiration; when you know her back story, it is almost impossible to deny that she has earned every accolade and award cast her way. 

And while I admit it took me some time to understand her appeal—because I tend to gravitate toward quiet, reserved, low-key types—I do get her, and I believe she is a worthy aspirational beacon for countless young girls and women, as well as an important figure for men to study.
So, when Oprah closed her speech with this,

In my career, what I've always tried my best to do, whether on television or through film, is to say something about how men and women really behave. To say how we experience shame, how we love and how we rage, how we fail, how we retreat, persevere, and how we overcome. I've interviewed and portrayed people who've withstood some of the ugliest things life can throw at you, but the one quality all of them seem to share is an ability to maintain hope for a brighter morning, even during our darkest nights. So I want all the girls watching here, now, to know that a new day is on the horizon! And when that new day finally dawns, it will be because of a lot of magnificent women, many of whom are right here in this room tonight, and some pretty phenomenal men, fighting hard to make sure that they become the leaders who take us to the time when nobody ever has to say 'Me too' again.

I could well understand how many people would take her words as a trumpet call for her own candidacy for the presidency (already CNN is hyping the 2020 run). I hope that is not the case, but not because she couldn’t do the job; only because there needs to be a woman in the Oval Office who has been striving for that position all her life, and whose vision for America has been informed by years on the political battlefield.

Just as Oprah committed herself to a life of excellence as an actor, writer, and champion for the underdogs around the world, so, too, is there a woman in the political arena today—local, state or national—who, as a girl and as a young adult, saw public service as her way of making a difference and championing change.

Perhaps she joined the military and saw combat; perhaps she stood for unpopular principles when she first ran for office, but she stuck to her guns and won.

Perhaps she is a single mother who understands the education inequalities and financial hardships so many single moms face.

Perhaps she had to work much harder than men in her profession, just to get a smaller paycheck.

Perhaps she was strapped with student debt on her way to a post-secondary or graduate education, and understands the enormous burden such a debt places on millions of Americans.

Perhaps she took care of aging or dying parents while trying to balance her own health needs and those of her family, experiencing the injustice of inflated prescriptions and medical costs, not to mention basic health insurance costs.
Perhaps one of her children struggles with a disability that requires special care and attention.

Perhaps she started out as a small-business owner, coming to grips with the challenges of entrepreneurship.

Perhaps sometime in her life she had to deal with an abusive relationship, or, at least, boorish and unthinking men who made her life’s progress a real emotional slog.

Perhaps she loves the arts, and worries that funding for arts and music education is slowly disappearing from the American education canon;

Perhaps she has watched too many people around her fail to gain traction in the American community—immigrants seeking better lives, Black Americans still fighting the old hatreds, impoverished Americans unable to see any light ahead—and she knows she can make a difference and that’s what motivates her to get up every day and put herself in the political arena on their behalf.

In April, 1923, Teddy Roosevelt—a man who knew adversity first-hand— spoke to an audience at the Sorbonne in Paris. The topic of the speech was “Citizenship in a Republic.” Within that speech is what is called “The Man in the Arena.” If I had license to do so, I would, for this example, replace the word “man” with “woman” in order to make the point that, in the 21 century, men and women have the right to compete in the arena,

It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat.


I do believe it is time for a woman whose life experiences are common to us all to be elevated to the nation’s highest office. Oprah Winfrey may be—should be—that woman’s beacon. In such a role, Oprah will serve a much higher cause by lending the power of her voice to champion that rising woman in the arena. 

Sunday, January 7, 2018

A New Definition Of Genius According To Trump

For your consideration: One Donald Trump who believes with every fiber of his being that he knows more than any other human on the planet (or any human who ever lived, including Einstein, Enrico Fermi, J. Robert Oppenheimer, and all the men and women whose lives were and continue to be devoted to physics and nuclear energy). As if to dismiss the massive brain power of generations of scientists who are still plumbing the depths of the atom and its nuclear forces, Mr. Trump said this about uranium: “You know what uranium is, right? This thing called nuclear weapons like lots of things are done with uranium including some bad things.”

So there you have it. Uranium is just another bad thing, like North Korea, the FBI, all the intelligence services, personal cell phones in the White House, a book he’s never read but doesn’t like already, a broad swath of the media, Dreamers, refugees, and a few dozen other bogeymen all playing inside Trump’s incredible brain (a brain like you’ve never seen). Let’s call the unseen force that created all these bad things the “Deep State,” a netherworld of plotting and planning goblins and ghosts and long-legged beasts invented by Mr. Trump to explain away all the things he cannot understand, or which are simply too inconvenient for his brain to comprehend.

I’ve been doing some digging into the structure and scope of the Deep State, curious to map it out and see just who the Deep State’s controllers are, and how they are so darned impossible to pin down and identify. My search is informed by my own history of work here in Washington. One would think that after nearly 35 years of employment in the House of Representatives, the Senate, three cabinet departments, an investigative arm of the Pentagon, numerous news journals and magazines based here in Washington, and just generally kicking around town for all of my adult life, I might have at least run into someone from the Deep State. I even held a pretty high-level clearance in order to learn some things of importance to the country’s security.  Bottom line? I never ran into any Deep Stater. And why would that be?

Because Washington leaks like a sieve, and is damn proud of it! You couldn’t plot a takeover of a DC street vendor without the Washington Post getting wind of it or Michael Wolff writing about it or CNN breaking into its Breaking News! cycle with all the details of the now-exposed and ruined plan. Why, Chris Cuomo and Alisyn Camerota would feature the plan on New Day, then Poppy Montgomery would follow up…as would Dana Bash and Brook Baldwin. Then Wolf Blitzer would have at least one panel of former hot-dog vendors and food takeover analysts on his segment, all rounded out by a Jake Tapper commentary (and possibly a Sunday roundtable on ABC and CBS, and a Fareed Zakharia GPS global opinion on the strategic impact of failed hot dog vendor plots). On the other side of the dial, Fox News would suggest the vendor (a naturalized citizen of nonetheless questionable national leanings), deserved to be targeted, and that is exactly why THE WALL must be built.

My point, and I have one, is that all of Donald Trumps bizarre ideas about how government insiders are fomenting a gaslighting revolution--telling lies, informing the media, laying dastardly traps disguised as lengthy briefing books designed to frustrate him by being in English (with multisyllabic words), trying to get him to read the Constitution, and possibly poisoning his food (thus, he eats McDonalds as the other alternative to a White House meal…maybe he’d prefer White Castle)—come not from a Deep State, but from the House of Mirrors that is his brain.

No, there’s no Deep State. There is only Shallow Donald.  He's just a lout, an oaf, an illiterate, and a bully who has never been told "no" by anyone (are you listening Mitch and Paul and all of the Cabinet?) and who parlayed--freakishly--a minor fortune into a modest fortune (tax returns anyone?) by intimidation and payoffs to sycophants and construction bosses who were happy to take his money (oh, yes, and by bankruptcies…lot of those).

He has no shame or sense of morality. He has no empathic responses. He does not know, or wish to know, poor people, people of the working class who have no budget leeway, people of color who are the inheritors of all the sweat of the Civil Rights generation. He doesn’t give a damn about coal miners (sorry folks, but the truth must be illuminated here—and not with just a helmet lamp), and he has little use for anyone whose brain could be larger than his own nuclear button.

Because he doesn't read or want to, he has no sense of history, nor does he have the capacity to compare and contrast world events. Therefore, he is unprepared to make key decisions requiring measured decisions.
I have this dreadful nightmare that the instructions for the nuclear codes carried by Trump’s military aide (a sorrowful job) have all been rendered into primary-color cartoons, with SpongeBob SquarePants guiding Mr. Trump through his strike options.

No Deep State is necessary to bring this man to a final accounting for the damage he continues to wreak upon America’s global image and on our personal senses of dignity, ethics, and fair play. Mr. Trump is well equipped to do the damage to himself, aided as such people always seem to be by a coterie of enablers—some in, some out…some back in again…some out again—and a family of know-nothings and care-nothings who believe only in themselves.

I don’t know if Michael Wolff got it right in his book, but even if ten-percent is true, we should continue to be very, very worried.